Setter Volume Report — global secondary market volume, FY 2015

6th Edition

Setter's semi-annual survey of the global secondary market — every edition since 2013.

Total volume

Total secondary market volume was $49.60bn in FY 2015, up 0.6% from $49.30bn in FY 2014.

Types of assets purchased (FY 2015, USD bn)

  • All assets purchased$49.60bn
  • Private Equity $37.70bn−0.5%
  • Real Estate $9.20bn+34.7%
  • Infrastructure $1.60bn−15.6%
  • Hedge Funds $835.00m−66.7%
  • Agriculture / Timber $313.00m+56.7%

Reported activity vs FY 2014

  • Meaningfully higher44.0%
  • Similar52.0%
  • Meaningfully lower4.0%

Key takeaway

  • 44.0% of respondents reported meaningfully higher activity than FY 2014, against 4.0% reporting meaningfully lower.

Assets purchased

LP-led vs. GP-led secondaries

$39.38bn

LP-led volume

$10.22bn

GP-led volume

20.6%

GP-led share of volume

LP-led vs. GP-led split (share of volume)

  • LP-led79.4%
  • GP-led20.6%

Direct purchases split PE vs RE

  • PE directs90.0%
  • RE directs10.0%

Breakdown of LP-led fund secondaries

  • All LP-led fund secondaries$39.35bn
  • Private equity $28.50bn
  • Real Estate $8.10bn
  • Infrastructure $1.60bn
  • Hedge Funds $835.00m
  • Agriculture / Timber $313.00m

Types of funds purchased

Private equity funds (USD bn)

  • LBO$24.40bn
  • VC$1.70bn
  • Mezzanine$850.00m
  • Energy$826.00m
  • Fund of Funds$722.00m

Real estate funds (USD bn)

  • Value-Add$3.30bn
  • Opportunistic$3.10bn
  • Core$1.80bn

General partners' approach to the secondary market

Liquidations & restructurings

  • More59.0%
  • Similar40.0%
  • Less1.0%

Staples sought by GPs

  • More32.4%
  • Similar65.0%
  • Less3.0%

Restrictiveness on transfers

  • More restrictive24.0%
  • No change67.0%
  • Less restrictive9.0%

Key takeaway

  • GP-ledA secondary transaction initiated by a fund's general partner, commonly involving a continuation vehicle or tender offer. secondaries were 20.6% of volume in FY 2015, with the balance LP-ledAn LP-led secondary: an existing fund investor (a limited partner) sells one or more fund interests to another investor..

Geography of assets purchased

Share of assets purchased by region

  • North America51.5%
  • Western Europe32.6%
  • Global8.7%
  • Asia-Pacific6.4%
  • Other0.8%

Volume by region (USD bn, YoY)

  • All regions$49.60bn
  • North America $25.60bn+8.5%
  • Western Europe $16.20bn−11.5%
  • Global $4.30bn+231.0%
  • Asia-Pacific $3.20bn
  • Other $300.00m

Key takeaway

  • North America was the largest source of assets purchased in FY 2015, at 51.5% of volume.

Profiles of buyers

Types of buyers (share of volume)

  • Secondary Funds79.1%
  • Funds of Funds12.8%
  • Pensions3.8%
  • Hedge Sec / FoFs3.3%
  • Inv. Consultants1.0%

Locations of buyers (head-office based)

  • North America61.1%
  • Europe37.4%
  • Asia1.5%

Buyers' scope of interest

16.7%

Broadened into other alternative strategies

29.4%

Intend to broaden next year

Activity levels of small, medium and large buyers

BuyersVolumeShareDealsAvg. deal
Large13$30.70bn62.0%283$108.50m
Medium57$16.70bn33.6%655$25.50m
Small47$2.20bn4.4%189$11.40m

Volume by size of buyer

  • Large 62.0%$30.70bn
  • Medium 33.6%$16.70bn
  • Small 4.4%$2.20bn

Key takeaways

  • Secondary Funds led the buy side in FY 2015 at 79.1% of volume, and 61.1% of buyers were headquartered in North America.
  • The Large tier accounted for 62.0% of reported volume, across 13 buyers.

Deals

Number of deals and average deal size

1,127

Transactions

$44.01m

Average deal size

Deals and deal size by buyer size

Number of deals

  • Large 283
  • Medium 655
  • Small 189

Average deal size

  • Large $108.50m
  • Medium $25.50m
  • Small $11.40m

Seller profiles

Types of sellers in FY 2015

  • Pensions33.8%
  • Banks18.0%
  • Other Fund GPs13.7%
  • Family Offices6.8%
  • Endowments / Charities6.1%
  • Fund of Funds / Secondary Funds5.9%
  • Sovereign Funds5.7%
  • Insurance Companies5.1%
  • Corporate3.9%

Expected sellers over the next six months

  • Banks13.0%
  • Insurance Companies4.0%
  • Pensions34.0%
  • Sovereign Funds16.0%
  • Family Offices5.0%
  • Endowments / Charities10.0%
  • Fund of Funds / Secondary Funds10.0%
  • Hedge Funds / Hedge Fund of Funds1.0%
  • Other Fund GPs (non FoF or Sec Funds)6.0%
  • Corporate - Balance Sheet (non-financial)1.0%

Seller location

Share of volume by seller region

  • North America50.3%
  • Western Europe26.3%
  • Asia-Pacific20.1%
  • Other3.3%

Volume by seller region (USD bn)

  • North America $24.90bn
  • Western Europe $14.00bn
  • Asia-Pacific $10.00bn

Key takeaways

  • Pensions (33.8%) and Banks (18.0%) led selling in FY 2015.
  • Buyers expect Pensions to be the single largest source of volume over the next six months, at 34.0%.

Terms & returns

Leverage and returns

Level of debt used by buyers vs prior year

  • Meaningfully more55.0%
  • Similar44.0%
  • Less1.0%

Buyers underwrote to an expected gross multiple of 1.41x.

Key takeaway

  • Buyers underwrote to a 1.41x expected gross multipleA return measure equal to total value returned divided by capital invested (e.g. a 2.0x multiple doubles the money)..

Competition

Buyer competition for deals vs prior year

  • Meaningfully higher26.9%
  • Similar71.8%
  • Meaningfully lower1.3%

Intermediation

Volume involving an intermediary

63.2%

Volume involving an intermediary

$31.40bn

Intermediated volume

Outlook

Projected volume for FY 2016

FY 2016 Forecast

$50.70bn

Predicted secondary volume for FY 2016 (+2.2% vs this period)

How buyers expect FY 2016 to compare to this period

  • Meaningfully higher9.0%
  • Similar72.0%
  • Meaningfully lower19.0%

Expected distribution and NAV changes in FY 2016

FY 2016 Expected

−2.4%

Expected change in distributions

+0.5%

Expected change in NAV

Key takeaway

  • Buyers project $50.70bn of volume in FY 2016, +2.2% against FY 2015. They also expect distributions to move −2.4% and NAVsNet asset value — the reported value of a fund's underlying holdings at a point in time. +0.5%.

Methodology

This edition summarises Setter Capital's semi-annual survey of the most active global buyers in the secondary market for alternative investments. Volume is defined as total exposure (NAV + unfunded, in USD) purchased in deals where a binding agreement was entered into during full-year 2015.

Source: Setter Capital Volume Report — FY 2015. The published PDF remains canonical.

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Source: Setter Capital Volume Report. Volume is defined as total exposure (NAV + unfunded, USD) in deals with a binding agreement entered into during the reporting period.

V4 preview — figures are transcribed from the published reports; the published PDF remains canonical.