Setter Volume Report — global secondary market volume, FY 2016

8th Edition

Setter's semi-annual survey of the global secondary market — every edition since 2013.

Total volume

Total secondary market volume was $42.15bn in FY 2016, down 15.0% from $49.60bn in FY 2015.

Types of assets purchased (FY 2016, USD bn)

  • All assets purchased$42.15bn
  • Private Equity $34.80bn−7.7%
  • Real Estate $4.80bn−47.8%
  • Infrastructure $1.60bn+0.5%
  • Hedge Funds $606.00m−27.4%
  • Agriculture / Timber $331.00m+5.8%

Reported activity vs FY 2015

  • Meaningfully higher33.4%
  • Similar34.8%
  • Meaningfully lower31.7%

Key takeaway

  • 33.4% of respondents reported meaningfully higher activity than FY 2015, against 31.7% reporting meaningfully lower.

Assets purchased

LP-led vs. GP-led secondaries

$32.08bn

LP-led volume

$10.07bn

GP-led volume

23.9%

GP-led share of volume

LP-led vs. GP-led split (share of volume)

  • LP-led76.1%
  • GP-led23.9%

Direct purchases split PE vs RE

  • PE directs91.1%
  • RE directs8.9%

Breakdown of LP-led fund secondaries

  • All LP-led fund secondaries$32.04bn
  • Private equity $25.60bn−10.0%
  • Real Estate $3.90bn−51.8%
  • Infrastructure $1.60bn+0.5%
  • Hedge Funds $606.00m−27.4%
  • Agriculture / Timber $331.00m+5.8%

Types of funds purchased

Private equity funds (USD bn)

  • LBO$20.20bn
  • VC$1.90bn
  • Debt$1.40bn
  • Fund of Funds$1.10bn
  • Energy$973.00m

Real estate funds (USD bn)

  • Value-Add$1.80bn
  • Opportunistic$1.10bn
  • Core$955.00m

General partners' approach to the secondary market

Liquidations & restructurings

  • More54.7%
  • Similar41.3%
  • Less4.0%

Staples sought by GPs

  • More25.3%
  • Similar70.7%
  • Less4.0%

Restrictiveness on transfers

  • More restrictive18.0%
  • No change74.0%
  • Less restrictive8.0%

Key takeaway

  • GP-ledA secondary transaction initiated by a fund's general partner, commonly involving a continuation vehicle or tender offer. secondaries were 23.9% of volume in FY 2016, with the balance LP-ledAn LP-led secondary: an existing fund investor (a limited partner) sells one or more fund interests to another investor..

Geography of assets purchased

Share of assets purchased by region

  • North America55.7%
  • Western Europe32.5%
  • Asia-Pacific7.1%
  • Global3.6%
  • Other1.1%

Volume by region (USD bn, YoY)

  • All regions$42.15bn
  • North America $23.50bn−8.3%
  • Western Europe $13.70bn−15.3%
  • Asia-Pacific $3.00bn−5.1%
  • Global $1.50bn−64.9%
  • Other $450.00m

Key takeaway

  • North America was the largest source of assets purchased in FY 2016, at 55.7% of volume.

Profiles of buyers

Types of buyers (share of volume)

  • Secondary Funds82.7%
  • Funds of Funds13.1%
  • Pensions1.5%
  • Hedge Sec / FoFs1.4%
  • Inv. Consultants1.3%

Locations of buyers (head-office based)

  • North America63.5%
  • Europe34.7%
  • Asia1.6%

Buyers' scope of interest

20.9%

Broadened into other alternative strategies

36.9%

Intend to broaden next year

Activity levels of small, medium and large buyers

BuyersVolumeShareDealsAvg. deal
Large10$24.60bn58.4%239$103.10m
Medium56$15.60bn37.1%620$25.20m
Small53$1.90bn4.5%227$8.40m

Volume by size of buyer

  • Large 58.4%$24.60bn
  • Medium 37.1%$15.60bn
  • Small 4.5%$1.90bn

Key takeaways

  • Secondary Funds led the buy side in FY 2016 at 82.7% of volume, and 63.5% of buyers were headquartered in North America.
  • The Large tier accounted for 58.4% of reported volume, across 10 buyers.

Deals

Number of deals and average deal size

1,086

Transactions

$38.80m

Average deal size

Deals and deal size by buyer size

Number of deals

  • Large 239
  • Medium 620
  • Small 227

Average deal size

  • Large $103.10m
  • Medium $25.20m
  • Small $8.40m

Seller profiles

Types of sellers in FY 2016

  • Pensions37.3%
  • Fund of Funds / Secondary Funds19.7%
  • Other Fund GPs11.9%
  • Family Offices11.6%
  • Banks10.3%
  • Endowments / Charities5.8%
  • Corporate2.1%
  • Sovereign Funds0.6%
  • Insurance Companies0.5%

Expected sellers over the next six months

  • Banks4.0%
  • Insurance Companies3.0%
  • Pensions34.0%
  • Sovereign Funds16.0%
  • Family Offices8.0%
  • Endowments / Charities10.0%
  • Fund of Funds / Secondary Funds19.0%
  • Hedge Funds / Hedge Fund of Funds1.0%
  • Other Fund GPs (non FoF or Sec Funds)4.0%
  • Corporate - Balance Sheet (non-financial)1.0%

Seller location

Share of volume by seller region

  • North America62.6%
  • Western Europe30.7%
  • Asia-Pacific5.6%
  • Other1.1%

Volume by seller region (USD bn)

  • North America $26.40bn
  • Western Europe $12.90bn
  • Asia-Pacific $2.40bn
  • Other $460.00m

Key takeaways

  • Pensions (37.3%) and Fund of Funds / Secondary Funds (19.7%) led selling in FY 2016.
  • Buyers expect Pensions to be the single largest source of volume over the next six months, at 34.0%.

Terms & returns

Leverage and returns

Level of debt used by buyers vs prior year

  • Meaningfully more27.3%
  • Similar72.7%

Buyers underwrote to an expected gross multiple of 1.38x.

Buyers' target returns

Targeted IRRs (%)

  • PE directs 18.9%
  • VC funds 17.8%
  • LBO funds 13.7%
  • RE funds 13.5%
  • Infra funds 10.3%

Targeted gross multiples (x)

  • PE directs 1.74x
  • VC funds 1.59x
  • RE funds 1.41x
  • Infra funds 1.39x
  • LBO funds 1.38x

Key takeaway

  • Buyers underwrote to a 1.38x expected gross multipleA return measure equal to total value returned divided by capital invested (e.g. a 2.0x multiple doubles the money)..

Competition

Buyer competition for deals vs prior year

  • Meaningfully higher17.4%
  • Similar79.1%
  • Meaningfully lower3.5%

Intermediation

Volume involving an intermediary

65.3%

Volume involving an intermediary

$27.00bn

Intermediated volume

Outlook

Projected volume for FY 2017

FY 2017 Forecast

$52.30bn

Predicted secondary volume for FY 2017 (+25.5% vs this period)

How buyers expect FY 2017 to compare to this period

  • Meaningfully higher37.0%
  • Similar61.0%
  • Meaningfully lower2.0%

Expected distribution and NAV changes in FY 2017

FY 2017 Expected

+0.8%

Expected change in distributions

+1.2%

Expected change in NAV

Key takeaway

  • Buyers project $52.30bn of volume in FY 2017, +25.5% against FY 2016. They also expect distributions to move +0.8% and NAVsNet asset value — the reported value of a fund's underlying holdings at a point in time. +1.2%.

Methodology

This edition summarises Setter Capital's semi-annual survey of the most active global buyers in the secondary market for alternative investments. Volume is defined as total exposure (NAV + unfunded, in USD) purchased in deals where a binding agreement was entered into during full-year 2016.

Source: Setter Capital Volume Report — FY 2016. The published PDF remains canonical.

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Setter Capital advises buyers and sellers across the global secondary market.

Source: Setter Capital Volume Report. Volume is defined as total exposure (NAV + unfunded, USD) in deals with a binding agreement entered into during the reporting period.

V4 preview — figures are transcribed from the published reports; the published PDF remains canonical.