Setter Volume Report — global secondary market volume, FY 2017

10th Edition

Setter's semi-annual survey of the global secondary market — every edition since 2013.

Total volume

Total secondary market volume was $60.74bn in FY 2017, up 44.1% from $42.15bn in FY 2016.

Types of assets purchased (FY 2017, USD bn)

  • All assets purchased$60.74bn
  • Private Equity $51.56bn+48.1%
  • Real Estate $6.38bn+32.9%
  • Infrastructure $1.79bn+11.1%
  • Hedge Funds $743.00m+22.6%
  • Agriculture / Timber $266.00m−19.5%

Reported activity vs FY 2016

  • Meaningfully higher78.6%
  • Similar15.8%
  • Meaningfully lower5.6%

Key takeaway

  • 78.6% of respondents reported meaningfully higher activity than FY 2016, against 5.6% reporting meaningfully lower.

Assets purchased

LP-led vs. GP-led secondaries

$42.70bn

LP-led volume

$18.04bn

GP-led volume

29.7%

GP-led share of volume

LP-led vs. GP-led split (share of volume)

  • LP-led70.3%
  • GP-led29.7%

Direct purchases split PE vs RE

  • PE directs92.6%
  • RE directs7.4%

Breakdown of LP-led fund secondaries

  • All LP-led fund secondaries$42.71bn
  • Private equity $34.86bn+35.9%
  • Real Estate $5.05bn+29.4%
  • Infrastructure $1.79bn+11.1%
  • Hedge Funds $743.00m+22.6%
  • Agriculture / Timber $266.00m−19.5%

Types of funds purchased

Private equity funds (USD bn)

  • LBO$27.51bn
  • VC$3.08bn
  • Debt$1.81bn
  • Energy$1.23bn
  • Fund of Funds$1.23bn

Real estate funds (USD bn)

  • Opportunistic$2.31bn
  • Value-Add$2.11bn
  • Core$635.00m

General partners' approach to the secondary market

Liquidations & restructurings

  • More56.0%
  • Similar41.0%
  • Less3.0%

Staples sought by GPs

  • More25.0%
  • Similar70.0%
  • Less5.0%

Restrictiveness on transfers

  • More restrictive17.0%
  • No change68.0%
  • Less restrictive15.0%

Key takeaway

  • GP-ledA secondary transaction initiated by a fund's general partner, commonly involving a continuation vehicle or tender offer. secondaries were 29.7% of volume in FY 2017, with the balance LP-ledAn LP-led secondary: an existing fund investor (a limited partner) sells one or more fund interests to another investor..

Geography of assets purchased

Share of assets purchased by region

  • North America50.0%
  • Western Europe26.9%
  • Asia-Pacific10.8%
  • Global9.8%
  • Other2.5%

Volume by region (USD bn, YoY)

  • All regions$60.74bn
  • North America $29.61bn+26.2%
  • Western Europe $15.94bn+16.2%
  • Asia-Pacific $6.39bn+113.5%
  • Global $5.80bn+285.1%
  • Other $3.00bn

Key takeaway

  • North America was the largest source of assets purchased in FY 2017, at 50.0% of volume.

Profiles of buyers

Types of buyers (share of volume)

  • Secondary Funds81.4%
  • Funds of Funds8.4%
  • Pensions7.4%
  • Hedge Sec / FoFs2.2%
  • Inv. Consultants0.6%

Locations of buyers (head-office based)

  • North America65.6%
  • Europe33.8%
  • Asia0.5%

Buyers' scope of interest

21.7%

Broadened into other alternative strategies

33.8%

Intend to broaden next year

Activity levels of small, medium and large buyers

BuyersVolumeShareDealsAvg. deal
Large14$43.00bn70.8%306$140.52m
Medium53$15.85bn26.1%744$21.29m
Small56$1.88bn3.1%328$5.75m

Volume by size of buyer

  • Large 70.8%$43.00bn
  • Medium 26.1%$15.85bn
  • Small 3.1%$1.88bn

Key takeaways

  • Secondary Funds led the buy side in FY 2017 at 81.4% of volume, and 65.6% of buyers were headquartered in North America.
  • The Large tier accounted for 70.8% of reported volume, across 14 buyers.

Deals

Number of deals and average deal size

1,378

Transactions

$44.07m

Average deal size

Deals and deal size by buyer size

Number of deals

  • Large 306
  • Medium 744
  • Small 328

Average deal size

  • Large $140.52m
  • Medium $21.29m
  • Small $5.75m

Seller profiles

Types of sellers in FY 2017

  • Other Fund GPs22.4%
  • Pensions21.2%
  • Fund of Funds / Secondary Funds16.0%
  • Sovereign Funds12.6%
  • Endowments / Charities8.1%
  • Banks8.0%
  • Family Offices6.6%
  • Insurance Companies2.6%
  • Corporate2.1%

Expected sellers over the next six months

  • Banks5.0%
  • Insurance Companies3.0%
  • Pensions35.0%
  • Sovereign Funds11.0%
  • Family Offices9.0%
  • Endowments / Charities7.0%
  • Fund of Funds / Secondary Funds16.0%
  • Hedge Funds / Hedge Fund of Funds1.0%
  • Other Fund GPs (non FoF or Sec Funds)12.0%
  • Corporate - Balance Sheet (non-financial)1.0%

Seller location

Share of volume by seller region

  • North America51.7%
  • Western Europe28.9%
  • Other13.3%
  • Asia-Pacific6.1%

Volume by seller region (USD bn)

  • North America $31.37bn
  • Western Europe $17.58bn
  • Asia-Pacific $3.71bn
  • Other $8.08bn

Key takeaways

  • Other Fund GPs (22.4%) and Pensions (21.2%) led selling in FY 2017.
  • Buyers expect Pensions to be the single largest source of volume over the next six months, at 35.0%.

Terms & returns

Leverage and returns

Level of debt used by buyers vs prior year

  • Meaningfully more37.7%
  • Similar62.3%

Buyers underwrote to an expected gross multiple of 1.41x.

Buyers' target returns

Targeted IRRs (%)

  • VC funds 19.3%
  • PE directs 18.4%
  • LBO funds 14.4%
  • RE funds 14.0%
  • Infra funds 10.7%

Targeted gross multiples (x)

  • PE directs 1.72x
  • VC funds 1.62x
  • RE funds 1.43x
  • LBO funds 1.37x
  • Infra funds 1.36x

Key takeaway

  • Buyers underwrote to a 1.41x expected gross multipleA return measure equal to total value returned divided by capital invested (e.g. a 2.0x multiple doubles the money)..

Competition

Buyer competition for deals vs prior year

  • Meaningfully higher24.0%
  • Similar76.0%

Intermediation

Volume involving an intermediary

60.9%

Volume involving an intermediary

$36.99bn

Intermediated volume

Outlook

Projected volume for FY 2018

FY 2018 Forecast

$58.85bn

Predicted secondary volume for FY 2018 (−3.1% vs this period)

How buyers expect FY 2018 to compare to this period

  • Meaningfully higher12.0%
  • Similar70.0%
  • Meaningfully lower18.0%

Expected distribution and NAV changes in FY 2018

FY 2018 Expected

+1.2%

Expected change in distributions

+3.2%

Expected change in NAV

Key takeaway

  • Buyers project $58.85bn of volume in FY 2018, −3.1% against FY 2017. They also expect distributions to move +1.2% and NAVsNet asset value — the reported value of a fund's underlying holdings at a point in time. +3.2%.

Methodology

This edition summarises Setter Capital's semi-annual survey of the most active global buyers in the secondary market for alternative investments. Volume is defined as total exposure (NAV + unfunded, in USD) purchased in deals where a binding agreement was entered into during full-year 2017.

Source: Setter Capital Volume Report — FY 2017. The published PDF remains canonical.

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Source: Setter Capital Volume Report. Volume is defined as total exposure (NAV + unfunded, USD) in deals with a binding agreement entered into during the reporting period.

V4 preview — figures are transcribed from the published reports; the published PDF remains canonical.