Setter Volume Report — global secondary market volume, FY 2018

12th Edition

Setter's semi-annual survey of the global secondary market — every edition since 2013.

Total volume

Total secondary market volume was $79.70bn in FY 2018, up 31.2% from $60.70bn in FY 2017.

Types of assets purchased (FY 2018, USD bn)

  • All assets purchased$79.70bn
  • Private Equity $70.23bn+36.2%
  • Real Estate $5.85bn−8.3%
  • Infrastructure $3.00bn+68.3%
  • Hedge Funds $460.00m−38.3%
  • Agriculture / Timber $130.00m−51.9%

Reported activity vs FY 2017

  • Meaningfully higher79.2%
  • Similar19.6%
  • Meaningfully lower1.2%

Key takeaway

  • 79.2% of respondents reported meaningfully higher activity than FY 2017, against 1.2% reporting meaningfully lower.

Assets purchased

LP-led vs. GP-led secondaries

$51.41bn

LP-led volume

$28.29bn

GP-led volume

35.5%

GP-led share of volume

LP-led vs. GP-led split (share of volume)

  • LP-led64.5%
  • GP-led35.5%

Direct purchases split PE vs RE

  • Private Equity93.0%
  • Real Estate7.0%

Breakdown of LP-led fund secondaries

  • All LP-led fund secondaries$51.39bn
  • Private Equity $43.80bn+25.7%
  • Real Estate $4.00bn−20.8%
  • Infrastructure $3.00bn+68.3%
  • Hedge Funds $460.00m−38.3%
  • Agriculture / Timber $130.00m−51.9%

Types of funds purchased

Private equity funds (USD bn)

  • LBO$33.20bn
  • VC$5.10bn
  • Fund of Funds$2.30bn
  • Energy$1.70bn
  • Debt$1.50bn

Real estate funds (USD bn)

  • Opportunistic$2.30bn
  • Value-Add$1.20bn
  • Core$500.00m

Types of GP-led secondaries

Types of deals completed

  • Fund restructurings (LPs may sell or roll into a new vehicle)33.0%
  • Purchases of directs from a fund (incumbent manager exits)11.0%
  • Tender offers to LPs (fund not restructured)41.0%
  • Provision of unfunded / dry powder to a fund1.0%
  • Other14.0%

General partners' approach to the secondary market

Liquidations & restructurings

  • More62.0%
  • Similar38.0%

Staples sought by GPs

  • More37.0%
  • Similar63.0%

Restrictiveness on transfers

  • More15.0%
  • Similar76.0%
  • Less9.0%

Key takeaways

  • GP-ledA secondary transaction initiated by a fund's general partner, commonly involving a continuation vehicle or tender offer. secondaries were 35.5% of volume in FY 2018, with the balance LP-ledAn LP-led secondary: an existing fund investor (a limited partner) sells one or more fund interests to another investor..
  • Tender offers to LPs were the most common GP-led structure, at 41.0% of deals.

Geography of assets purchased

Share of assets purchased by region

  • North America56.0%
  • Western Europe27.0%
  • Global9.0%
  • Asia-Pacific7.0%
  • Other2.0%

Volume by region (USD bn, YoY)

  • All regions$79.70bn
  • North America $44.60bn+50.6%
  • Western Europe $21.40bn+34.3%
  • Global $6.80bn+17.1%
  • Asia-Pacific $5.70bn−11.6%
  • Other $1.20bn

Key takeaway

  • North America was the largest source of assets purchased in FY 2018, at 56.0% of volume.

Profiles of buyers

Types of buyers (share of volume)

  • Secondary Funds84.0%
  • Funds of Funds9.0%
  • Pensions6.0%
  • Inv. Consultants1.0%

Locations of buyers (head-office based)

  • North America65.0%
  • Europe33.0%
  • Asia2.0%

Buyers' scope of interest

27.2%

Broadened into other alternative strategies

25.6%

Intend to broaden next year

Activity levels of small, medium and large buyers

BuyersVolumeShareDealsAvg. deal
Large17$58.80bn73.7%380$154.70m
Medium62$19.00bn23.9%903$21.10m
Small42$1.90bn2.4%313$6.00m

Volume by size of buyer

  • Large 73.7%$58.80bn
  • Medium 23.9%$19.00bn
  • Small 2.4%$1.90bn

Key takeaways

  • Secondary Funds led the buy side in FY 2018 at 84.0% of volume, and 65.0% of buyers were headquartered in North America.
  • The Large tier accounted for 73.7% of reported volume, across 17 buyers.

Deals

Number of deals and average deal size

1,595

Transactions

$49.90m

Average deal size

Deals and deal size by buyer size

Number of deals

  • Large 380
  • Medium 903
  • Small 313

Average deal size

  • Large $154.70m
  • Medium $21.10m
  • Small $6.00m

Seller profiles

Types of sellers in FY 2018

  • Pensions29.0%
  • Other Fund GPs17.0%
  • Fund of Funds / Secondary Funds16.0%
  • Insurance Companies15.0%
  • Family Offices7.0%
  • Sovereign Funds5.0%
  • Endowments / Charities5.0%
  • Hedge Funds4.0%
  • Banks2.0%

Expected sellers over the next six months

  • Banks3.0%
  • Insurance Companies2.0%
  • Pensions36.0%
  • Sovereign Funds19.0%
  • Family Offices6.0%
  • Endowments / Charities4.0%
  • Fund of Funds / Secondary Funds13.0%
  • Hedge Funds / Hedge Fund of Funds1.0%
  • Other Fund GPs (non FoF or Sec Funds)15.0%
  • Corporate - Balance Sheet (non-financial)1.0%

Seller location

Share of volume by seller region

  • North America60.0%
  • Western Europe27.0%
  • Asia-Pacific10.0%
  • Other3.0%

Volume by seller region (USD bn)

  • North America $47.60bn
  • Western Europe $21.10bn
  • Asia-Pacific $8.40bn
  • Other $2.39bn

Key takeaways

  • Pensions (29.0%) and Other Fund GPs (17.0%) led selling in FY 2018.
  • Buyers expect Pensions to be the single largest source of volume over the next six months, at 36.0%.

Terms & returns

Payment terms

Payment terms

  • 100% cash paid on closing69.0%
  • Partially deferred (e.g. half on close, half in a year)25.0%
  • Preferred equity — capped upside thereafter4.0%
  • Partial payment plus upside sharing1.0%
  • Other1.0%

Leverage and returns

Level of debt used by buyers vs prior year

  • Meaningfully more29.2%
  • Similar70.8%

Buyers underwrote to an expected gross multiple of 1.44x.

Buyers' target returns

Targeted IRRs (%)

  • PE Directs 19.4%
  • VC funds 18.9%
  • RE funds 15.6%
  • LBO funds 14.5%
  • Infra funds 11.9%

Targeted gross multiples (x)

  • PE Directs 1.77x
  • VC funds 1.65x
  • RE funds 1.53x
  • Infra funds 1.46x
  • LBO funds 1.42x

Key takeaway

  • 100% cash paid on closing featured in 69.0% of the volume-weighted deal mix, and buyers underwrote to a 1.44x expected gross multipleA return measure equal to total value returned divided by capital invested (e.g. a 2.0x multiple doubles the money)..

Competition

Buyer competition for deals vs prior year

  • Meaningfully higher12.5%
  • Similar81.3%
  • Meaningfully lower6.3%

Intermediation

Volume involving an intermediary

64.0%

Volume involving an intermediary

$51.00bn

Intermediated volume

Outlook

Projected volume for FY 2019

FY 2019 Forecast

$72.80bn

Predicted secondary volume for FY 2019 (−8.6% vs this period)

How buyers expect FY 2019 to compare to this period

  • Meaningfully higher23.4%
  • Similar51.7%
  • Meaningfully lower24.9%

Expected distribution and NAV changes in FY 2019

FY 2019 Expected

−1.2%

Expected change in distributions

+0.3%

Expected change in NAV

Key takeaway

  • Buyers project $72.80bn of volume in FY 2019, −8.6% against FY 2018. They also expect distributions to move −1.2% and NAVsNet asset value — the reported value of a fund's underlying holdings at a point in time. +0.3%.

Methodology

This edition summarises Setter Capital's semi-annual survey of the most active global buyers in the secondary market for alternative investments. Volume is defined as total exposure (NAV + unfunded, in USD) purchased in deals where a binding agreement was entered into during full-year 2018.

Source: Setter Capital Volume Report — FY 2018. The published PDF remains canonical.

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Source: Setter Capital Volume Report. Volume is defined as total exposure (NAV + unfunded, USD) in deals with a binding agreement entered into during the reporting period.

V4 preview — figures are transcribed from the published reports; the published PDF remains canonical.