Setter Volume Report — global secondary market volume, FY 2019

14th Edition

Setter's semi-annual survey of the global secondary market — every edition since 2013.

Total volume

Total secondary market volume was $85.41bn in FY 2019, up 7.2% from $79.67bn in FY 2018.

Types of assets purchased (FY 2019, USD bn)

  • All assets purchased$85.41bn
  • Private Equity $77.82bn+10.8%
  • Real Estate $3.69bn−36.9%
  • Infrastructure $3.45bn+14.7%
  • Hedge Funds $290.00m−37.1%
  • Agriculture / Timber $170.00m+29.5%

Reported activity vs FY 2018

  • Meaningfully higher35.8%
  • Similar59.4%
  • Meaningfully lower4.8%

Key takeaway

  • 35.8% of respondents reported meaningfully higher activity than FY 2018, against 4.8% reporting meaningfully lower.

Assets purchased

LP-led vs. GP-led secondaries

$56.20bn

LP-led volume

$29.21bn

GP-led volume

34.2%

GP-led share of volume

LP-led vs. GP-led split (share of volume)

  • LP-led65.8%
  • GP-led34.2%

Direct purchases split PE vs RE

  • PE directs95.6%
  • RE directs4.4%

Breakdown of LP-led fund secondaries

  • All LP-led fund secondaries$56.17bn
  • Private equity $49.86bn+13.8%
  • Infrastructure $3.45bn+14.7%
  • Real Estate $2.40bn−40.0%
  • Hedge Funds $290.00m−37.1%
  • Agriculture / Timber $170.00m+29.5%

Types of funds purchased

Private equity funds (USD bn)

  • LBO$37.30bn
  • VC$4.75bn
  • Debt$3.14bn
  • Fund of Funds$2.90bn
  • Energy$1.77bn

Real estate funds (USD bn)

  • Opportunistic$1.15bn
  • Value-Add$850.00m
  • Core$400.00m

Types of GP-led secondaries

Types of deals completed

  • Fund restructurings (LPs may sell or roll into a new vehicle)55.0%
  • Purchases of directs from a fund (incumbent manager exits)23.0%
  • Tender offers to LPs (fund not restructured)10.0%
  • Provision of unfunded / dry powder to a fund1.0%
  • Other12.0%

General partners' approach to the secondary market

Liquidations & restructurings

  • More58.0%
  • Similar41.0%
  • Less1.0%

Staples sought by GPs

  • More31.0%
  • Similar65.0%
  • Less4.0%

Restrictiveness on transfers

  • More restrictive29.0%
  • No change57.0%
  • Less restrictive14.0%

Key takeaways

  • GP-ledA secondary transaction initiated by a fund's general partner, commonly involving a continuation vehicle or tender offer. secondaries were 34.2% of volume in FY 2019, with the balance LP-ledAn LP-led secondary: an existing fund investor (a limited partner) sells one or more fund interests to another investor..
  • Fund restructurings were the most common GP-led structure, at 55.0% of deals.

Geography of assets purchased

Share of assets purchased by region

  • North America58.7%
  • Western Europe29.5%
  • Asia-Pacific7.1%
  • Global2.6%
  • Other2.1%

Volume by region (USD bn, YoY)

  • All regions$85.41bn
  • North America $50.14bn+12.4%
  • Western Europe $25.16bn+17.5%
  • Asia-Pacific $6.10bn+8.1%
  • Global $2.18bn−67.9%
  • Other $1.83bn

Key takeaway

  • North America was the largest source of assets purchased in FY 2019, at 58.7% of volume.

Profiles of buyers

Types of buyers (share of volume)

  • Secondary Funds86.8%
  • Funds of Funds10.3%
  • Pensions1.5%
  • Inv. Consultants0.8%
  • Hedge Sec / FoFs0.6%

Locations of buyers (head-office based)

  • North America63.3%
  • Europe35.1%
  • Asia1.6%

Buyers' scope of interest

16.7%

Broadened into other alternative strategies

25.3%

Intend to broaden next year

Activity levels of small, medium and large buyers

BuyersVolumeShareDealsAvg. deal
Large17$61.50bn72.0%445$138.18m
Medium66$22.25bn26.1%886$25.12m
Small35$1.66bn1.9%267$6.23m

Volume by size of buyer

  • Large 72.0%$61.50bn
  • Medium 26.1%$22.25bn
  • Small 1.9%$1.66bn

Key takeaways

  • Secondary Funds led the buy side in FY 2019 at 86.8% of volume, and 63.3% of buyers were headquartered in North America.
  • The Large tier accounted for 72.0% of reported volume, across 17 buyers.

Deals

Number of deals and average deal size

1,597

Transactions

$53.47m

Average deal size

Deals and deal size by buyer size

Number of deals

  • Large 445
  • Medium 886
  • Small 267

Average deal size

  • Large $138.18m
  • Medium $25.12m
  • Small $6.23m

Seller profiles

Types of sellers in FY 2019

  • Other Fund GPs24.5%
  • Pensions22.7%
  • Banks13.1%
  • Fund of Funds / Secondary Funds13.0%
  • Insurance Companies8.5%
  • Family Offices6.3%
  • Endowments / Charities4.6%
  • Sovereign Funds4.2%
  • Corporate3.0%

Expected sellers over the next six months

  • Banks1.0%
  • Insurance Companies4.0%
  • Pensions39.0%
  • Sovereign Funds12.0%
  • Family Offices4.0%
  • Endowments / Charities4.0%
  • Fund of Funds / Secondary Funds25.0%
  • Hedge Funds / Hedge Fund of Funds0.0%
  • Other Fund GPs (non FoF or Sec Funds)10.0%
  • Corporate - Balance Sheet (non-financial)1.0%

Seller location

Share of volume by seller region

  • North America55.4%
  • Western Europe22.4%
  • Asia-Pacific19.8%
  • Other2.5%

Volume by seller region (USD bn)

  • North America $47.29bn
  • Western Europe $19.11bn
  • Asia-Pacific $16.87bn
  • Other $2.14bn

Key takeaways

  • Other Fund GPs (24.5%) and Pensions (22.7%) led selling in FY 2019.
  • Buyers expect Pensions to be the single largest source of volume over the next six months, at 39.0%.

Terms & returns

Payment terms

Payment terms

  • 100% cash paid on closing74.0%
  • Partially deferred (e.g. half on close, half in a year)18.0%
  • Other terms / structuring7.0%
  • Preferred equity1.0%

Leverage and returns

Level of debt used by buyers vs prior year

  • Meaningfully more25.6%
  • Similar74.4%

Buyers underwrote to an expected gross multiple of 1.44x.

Buyers' target returns

Targeted IRRs (%)

  • VC funds 19.5%
  • PE directs 19.0%
  • LBO funds 14.8%
  • RE funds 14.0%
  • Infra funds 12.1%

Targeted gross multiples (x)

  • PE directs 1.76x
  • VC funds 1.70x
  • LBO funds 1.44x
  • Infra funds 1.44x
  • RE funds 1.42x

Key takeaway

  • 100% cash paid on closing featured in 74.0% of the volume-weighted deal mix, and buyers underwrote to a 1.44x expected gross multipleA return measure equal to total value returned divided by capital invested (e.g. a 2.0x multiple doubles the money)..

Competition

Buyer competition for deals vs prior year

  • Meaningfully higher5.7%
  • Similar88.6%
  • Meaningfully lower5.7%

Intermediation

Volume involving an intermediary

70.3%

Volume involving an intermediary

$60.06bn

Intermediated volume

Outlook

Projected volume for FY 2020

FY 2020 Forecast

$89.13bn

Predicted secondary volume for FY 2020 (+4.3% vs this period)

How buyers expect FY 2020 to compare to this period

  • Meaningfully higher8.4%
  • Similar83.8%
  • Meaningfully lower7.8%

Expected distribution and NAV changes in FY 2020

FY 2020 Expected

+1.9%

Expected change in distributions

+2.6%

Expected change in NAV

Key takeaway

  • Buyers project $89.13bn of volume in FY 2020, +4.3% against FY 2019. They also expect distributions to move +1.9% and NAVsNet asset value — the reported value of a fund's underlying holdings at a point in time. +2.6%.

Methodology

This edition summarises Setter Capital's semi-annual survey of the most active global buyers in the secondary market for alternative investments. Volume is defined as total exposure (NAV + unfunded, in USD) purchased in deals where a binding agreement was entered into during full-year 2019.

Source: Setter Capital Volume Report — FY 2019. The published PDF remains canonical.

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Source: Setter Capital Volume Report. Volume is defined as total exposure (NAV + unfunded, USD) in deals with a binding agreement entered into during the reporting period.

V4 preview — figures are transcribed from the published reports; the published PDF remains canonical.