Setter Volume Report — global secondary market volume, FY 2020

16th Edition

Setter's semi-annual survey of the global secondary market — every edition since 2013.

Total volume

Total secondary market volume was $61.76bn in FY 2020, down 27.7% from $85.41bn in FY 2019.

Types of assets purchased (FY 2020, USD bn)

  • All assets purchased$61.76bn
  • Private Equity $56.21bn−27.8%
  • Real Estate $2.74bn−25.7%
  • Infrastructure $2.06bn−40.4%
  • Hedge Funds $430.00m+47.9%
  • Agriculture / Timber $330.00m+97.3%

Reported activity vs FY 2019

  • Meaningfully higher7.1%
  • Similar67.7%
  • Meaningfully lower25.2%

Key takeaway

  • 7.1% of respondents reported meaningfully higher activity than FY 2019, against 25.2% reporting meaningfully lower.

Assets purchased

LP-led vs. GP-led secondaries

$29.34bn

LP-led volume

$32.42bn

GP-led volume

52.5%

GP-led share of volume

LP-led vs. GP-led split (share of volume)

  • LP-led47.5%
  • GP-led52.5%

Direct purchases split PE vs RE

  • PE directs96.8%
  • RE directs3.2%

Breakdown of LP-led fund secondaries

  • All LP-led fund secondaries$29.37bn
  • Private equity $24.85bn−50.2%
  • Infrastructure $2.06bn−40.4%
  • Real Estate $1.70bn−29.2%
  • Hedge Funds $430.00m+47.9%
  • Agriculture / Timber $330.00m+97.3%

Types of funds purchased

Private equity funds (USD bn)

  • LBO$19.21bn
  • VC$3.59bn
  • Fund of Funds$1.19bn
  • Debt$638.00m
  • Energy$226.00m

Real estate funds (USD bn)

  • Core$1.09bn
  • Opportunistic$460.00m
  • Value-Add$160.00m

Maturity of funds purchased

Average age of funds purchased

The volume-weighted average age of the fund interests purchased in FY 2020 was 5.72 years.

Types of GP-led secondaries

Types of deals completed

  • Fund restructurings (LPs may sell or roll into a new vehicle)74.0%
  • Purchases of directs from a fund (incumbent manager exits)8.0%
  • Tender offers to LPs (fund not restructured)4.0%
  • Provision of unfunded / dry powder to a fund1.0%
  • Other13.0%

General partners' approach to the secondary market

Liquidations & restructurings

  • More56.1%
  • Similar37.0%
  • Less7.0%

Staples sought by GPs

  • More29.0%
  • Similar61.5%
  • Less9.0%

Restrictiveness on transfers

  • More restrictive7.0%
  • No change88.0%
  • Less restrictive5.0%

Key takeaways

  • GP-ledA secondary transaction initiated by a fund's general partner, commonly involving a continuation vehicle or tender offer. secondaries were 52.5% of volume in FY 2020, with the balance LP-ledAn LP-led secondary: an existing fund investor (a limited partner) sells one or more fund interests to another investor..
  • Fund restructurings were the most common GP-led structure, at 74.0% of deals.

Geography of assets purchased

Share of assets purchased by region

  • North America56.7%
  • Western Europe29.1%
  • Asia-Pacific6.3%
  • Global6.0%
  • Other1.9%

Volume by region (USD bn, YoY)

  • All regions$61.76bn
  • North America $35.00bn−30.2%
  • Western Europe $18.00bn−28.5%
  • Asia-Pacific $3.92bn−35.8%
  • Global $3.70bn+69.5%
  • Other $1.14bn

Key takeaway

  • North America was the largest source of assets purchased in FY 2020, at 56.7% of volume.

Profiles of buyers

Types of buyers (share of volume)

  • Secondary Funds82.7%
  • Funds of Funds14.3%
  • Hedge Sec / FoFs1.2%
  • Inv. Consultants0.9%
  • Pensions0.8%

Locations of buyers (head-office based)

  • North America68.6%
  • Europe28.9%
  • Asia1.3%

Buyers' scope of interest

16.7%

Broadened into other alternative strategies

30.8%

Intend to broaden next year

Activity levels of small, medium and large buyers

BuyersVolumeShareDealsAvg. deal
Large16$41.50bn67.2%380$109.14m
Medium65$18.40bn29.8%774$23.77m
Small36$1.86bn3.0%222$8.39m

Volume by size of buyer

  • Large 67.2%$41.50bn
  • Medium 29.8%$18.40bn
  • Small 3.0%$1.86bn

Key takeaways

  • Secondary Funds led the buy side in FY 2020 at 82.7% of volume, and 68.6% of buyers were headquartered in North America.
  • The Large tier accounted for 67.2% of reported volume, across 16 buyers.

Deals

Number of deals and average deal size

1,376

Transactions

$44.88m

Average deal size

Deals and deal size by buyer size

Number of deals

  • Large 380
  • Medium 774
  • Small 222

Average deal size

  • Large $109.14m
  • Medium $23.77m
  • Small $8.39m

Execution risk

Deals that fell through vs prior period

  • Meaningfully higher60.0%
  • Similar35.3%
  • Meaningfully lower4.7%

Why deals fell through

  • Seller decided not to sell55.1%
  • Adverse economic issues generally / MAC clause34.5%
  • Adverse portfolio or manager issues uncovered in post-LOI diligence6.8%
  • GP did not allow transfer / PTP issues1.7%
  • Disagreement over NAV or post-reference date cash flows1.6%

Seller profiles

Types of sellers in FY 2020

  • Other Fund GPs27.3%
  • Pensions26.7%
  • Fund of Funds / Secondary Funds10.4%
  • Family Offices9.7%
  • Sovereign Funds8.6%
  • Endowments / Charities6.5%
  • Banks4.6%
  • Insurance Companies3.4%
  • Corporate2.2%

Expected sellers over the next six months

  • Banks1.0%
  • Insurance Companies4.0%
  • Pensions32.0%
  • Sovereign Funds17.0%
  • Family Offices10.0%
  • Endowments / Charities8.0%
  • Fund of Funds / Secondary Funds8.0%
  • Hedge Funds / Hedge Fund of Funds1.0%
  • Other Fund GPs (non FoF or Sec Funds)18.0%
  • Corporate - Balance Sheet (non-financial)1.0%

Seller location

Share of volume by seller region

  • North America62.0%
  • Western Europe25.9%
  • Asia-Pacific10.0%
  • Other2.1%

Volume by seller region (USD bn)

  • North America $38.28bn
  • Western Europe $16.01bn
  • Asia-Pacific $6.15bn
  • Other $1.30bn

Key takeaways

  • Other Fund GPs (27.3%) and Pensions (26.7%) led selling in FY 2020.
  • Buyers expect Pensions to be the single largest source of volume over the next six months, at 32.0%.

Terms & returns

Payment terms

Payment terms

  • 100% cash paid on closing77.2%
  • Partially deferred (e.g. half on close, half in a year)11.0%
  • Other terms / structuring10.0%
  • Preferred equity1.8%

Leverage and returns

Level of debt used by buyers vs prior year

  • Meaningfully more9.6%
  • Similar67.1%
  • Less23.3%

Buyers underwrote to an expected gross multiple of 1.58x.

Buyers' target returns

Targeted IRRs (%)

  • PE directs 18.5%
  • VC funds 17.9%
  • LBO funds 14.3%
  • RE funds 12.9%
  • Infra funds 10.7%

Targeted gross multiples (x)

  • PE directs 1.81x
  • VC funds 1.77x
  • LBO funds 1.50x
  • RE funds 1.46x
  • Infra funds 1.40x

Key takeaway

  • 100% cash paid on closing featured in 77.2% of the volume-weighted deal mix, and buyers underwrote to a 1.58x expected gross multipleA return measure equal to total value returned divided by capital invested (e.g. a 2.0x multiple doubles the money)..

Competition

Buyer competition for deals vs prior year

  • Meaningfully higher9.5%
  • Similar76.2%
  • Meaningfully lower14.3%

Intermediation

Volume involving an intermediary

65.7%

Volume involving an intermediary

$40.56bn

Intermediated volume

Outlook

Projected volume for FY 2021

FY 2021 Forecast

$89.84bn

Predicted secondary volume for FY 2021 (+45.5% vs this period)

How buyers expect FY 2021 to compare to this period

  • Meaningfully higher52.5%
  • Similar46.9%
  • Meaningfully lower0.6%

Expected distribution and NAV changes in FY 2021

FY 2021 Expected

+5.5%

Expected change in distributions

+5.1%

Expected change in NAV

Key takeaway

  • Buyers project $89.84bn of volume in FY 2021, +45.5% against FY 2020. They also expect distributions to move +5.5% and NAVsNet asset value — the reported value of a fund's underlying holdings at a point in time. +5.1%.

Methodology

This edition summarises Setter Capital's semi-annual survey of the most active global buyers in the secondary market for alternative investments. Volume is defined as total exposure (NAV + unfunded, in USD) purchased in deals where a binding agreement was entered into during full-year 2020.

Source: Setter Capital Volume Report — FY 2020. The published PDF remains canonical.

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Source: Setter Capital Volume Report. Volume is defined as total exposure (NAV + unfunded, USD) in deals with a binding agreement entered into during the reporting period.

V4 preview — figures are transcribed from the published reports; the published PDF remains canonical.