Setter Volume Report — global secondary market volume, FY 2023

22nd Edition

Setter's semi-annual survey of the global secondary market — every edition since 2013.

Total volume

Total secondary market volume was $106.33bn in FY 2023, up 4.7% from $101.51bn in FY 2022.

Types of assets purchased (FY 2023, USD bn)

  • All assets purchased$106.33bn
  • Private Equity $97.44bn+4.0%
  • Infrastructure $6.48bn+42.9%
  • Real Estate $2.19bn−26.5%
  • Hedge Funds $120.00m−38.2%
  • Agriculture / Timber $100.00m−29.6%

Reported activity vs FY 2022

  • Meaningfully higher37.8%
  • Similar49.9%
  • Meaningfully lower12.3%

Key takeaway

  • 37.8% of respondents reported meaningfully higher activity than FY 2022, against 12.3% reporting meaningfully lower.

Assets purchased

LP-led vs. GP-led secondaries

$62.84bn

LP-led volume

$43.49bn

GP-led volume

40.9%

GP-led share of volume

LP-led vs. GP-led split (share of volume)

  • LP-led59.1%
  • GP-led40.9%

Direct purchases split PE vs RE

  • PE directs98.2%
  • RE directs1.8%

Breakdown of LP-led fund secondaries

  • All LP-led fund secondaries$62.89bn
  • Private equity $54.77bn+11.0%
  • Infrastructure $6.48bn+42.9%
  • Real Estate $1.42bn−19.6%
  • Hedge Funds $120.00m−38.2%
  • Agriculture / Timber $100.00m−29.6%

Types of funds purchased

Private equity funds (USD bn)

  • LBO$44.63bn
  • VC$4.82bn
  • Debt$3.49bn
  • Fund of Funds$1.67bn
  • Energy$162.00m

Real estate funds (USD bn)

  • Core$380.00m
  • Value-Add$450.00m
  • Opportunistic$580.00m

Maturity of funds purchased

Average age of funds purchased

The volume-weighted average age of the fund interests purchased in FY 2023 was 5.30 years, compared with 5.25 years in FY 2022.

Types of GP-led secondaries

Types of deals completed

  • Fund restructurings (LPs may sell or roll into a new vehicle)70.0%
  • Purchases of directs from a fund (incumbent manager exits)4.0%
  • Tender offers to LPs (fund not restructured)14.0%
  • Provision of unfunded / dry powder to a fund3.0%
  • Other9.0%

General partners' approach to the secondary market

Liquidations & restructurings

  • More31.2%
  • Similar63.8%
  • Less5.0%

Staples sought by GPs

  • More32.1%
  • Similar58.9%
  • Less9.0%

Restrictiveness on transfers

  • More restrictive9.0%
  • No change81.0%
  • Less restrictive10.0%

Key takeaways

  • GP-ledA secondary transaction initiated by a fund's general partner, commonly involving a continuation vehicle or tender offer. secondaries were 40.9% of volume in FY 2023, with the balance LP-ledAn LP-led secondary: an existing fund investor (a limited partner) sells one or more fund interests to another investor..
  • Fund restructurings were the most common GP-led structure, at 70.0% of deals.

Geography of assets purchased

Share of assets purchased by region

  • North America61.2%
  • Western Europe26.4%
  • Global8.8%
  • Asia-Pacific3.1%
  • Other0.5%

Volume by region (USD bn, YoY)

  • All regions$106.33bn
  • North America $65.07bn+0.9%
  • Western Europe $28.08bn+15.5%
  • Global $9.40bn+41.3%
  • Asia-Pacific $3.31bn−31.5%
  • Other $470.00m

Key takeaway

  • North America was the largest source of assets purchased in FY 2023, at 61.2% of volume.

Profiles of buyers

Types of buyers (share of volume)

  • Secondary Funds93.6%
  • Funds of Funds3.6%
  • Pensions1.2%
  • Inv. Consultants0.9%
  • Hedge Sec / FoFs0.6%

Locations of buyers (head-office based)

  • North America72.2%
  • Europe26.6%
  • Asia1.3%

Buyers' scope of interest

11.0%

Broadened into other alternative strategies

27.8%

Intend to broaden next year

Activity levels of small, medium and large buyers

BuyersVolumeShareDealsAvg. deal
Large21$78.75bn74.1%683$115.38m
Medium70$25.65bn24.1%751$34.16m
Small40$1.93bn1.8%259$7.42m

Volume by size of buyer

  • Large 74.1%$78.75bn
  • Medium 24.1%$25.65bn
  • Small 1.8%$1.93bn

Key takeaways

  • Secondary Funds led the buy side in FY 2023 at 93.6% of volume, and 72.2% of buyers were headquartered in North America.
  • The Large tier accounted for 74.1% of reported volume, across 21 buyers.

Deals

Number of deals and average deal size

1,693

Transactions

$62.81m

Average deal size

Deals and deal size by buyer size

Number of deals

  • Large 683
  • Medium 751
  • Small 259

Average deal size

  • Large $115.38m
  • Medium $34.16m
  • Small $7.42m

Execution risk

Deals that fell through vs prior period

  • Meaningfully higher19.5%
  • Similar66.6%
  • Meaningfully lower13.9%

Why deals fell through

  • Seller decided not to sell68.7%
  • Adverse portfolio or manager issues uncovered in post-LOI diligence8.3%
  • GP did not allow transfer / PTP issues6.2%
  • Disagreement over PSA terms6.2%
  • Adverse tax issues uncovered in post-LOI diligence4.1%
  • Another investor exercised their right of first refusal/offer (ROFR/ROFO)4.2%
  • Disagreement over NAV or post-reference date cash flows2.1%

Seller profiles

Types of sellers in FY 2023

  • Pensions36.3%
  • Insurance Companies17.6%
  • Other Fund GPs16.6%
  • Banks10.5%
  • Family Offices7.1%
  • Endowments / Charities5.0%
  • Fund of Funds / Secondary Funds4.0%
  • Sovereign Funds2.3%
  • Corporate0.4%

Expected sellers over the next six months

  • Other Fund GPs (non FoF or Sec Funds)8.0%
  • Pensions45.0%
  • Sovereign Funds0.0%
  • Fund of Funds / Secondary Funds11.0%
  • Family Offices4.0%
  • Banks0.0%
  • Insurance Companies26.0%
  • Endowments / Charities5.0%
  • Corporate - Balance Sheet (non-financial)0.3%
  • Hedge Funds / Hedge Fund of Funds0.7%

Seller location

Share of volume by seller region

  • North America60.5%
  • Western Europe29.9%
  • Asia-Pacific8.5%
  • Other1.1%

Volume by seller region (USD bn)

  • North America $64.33bn
  • Asia-Pacific $9.01bn
  • Western Europe $31.79bn
  • Other $1.17bn

Key takeaways

  • Pensions (36.3%) and Insurance Companies (17.6%) led selling in FY 2023.
  • Buyers expect Pensions to be the single largest source of volume over the next six months, at 45.0%.

Terms & returns

Payment terms

Payment terms

  • 100% cash paid on closing71.9%
  • Partially deferred (e.g. half on close, half in a year)25.8%
  • Preferred equity1.5%
  • Earn-out (large cash component on closing)0.7%
  • Other terms / structuring0.1%

Pricing in FY 2023

86.4%

LP-led fund sales, as % of NAV

92.5%

GP-led secondaries, as % of NAV

Leverage and returns

Level of debt used by buyers vs prior year

  • Meaningfully more2.7%
  • Similar45.3%
  • Less52.0%

Buyers underwrote to an expected gross multiple of 1.6x.

Buyers' target returns

Targeted IRRs (%)

  • PE directs 20.5%
  • VC funds 20.4%
  • LBO funds 16.8%
  • Energy funds 16.5%
  • RE funds 14.3%
  • Infra funds 12.3%
  • Performing debt 11.9%
  • Timber funds 10.8%

Targeted gross multiples (x)

  • VC funds 2.02x
  • PE directs 1.96x
  • LBO funds 1.87x
  • Energy funds 1.86x
  • RE funds 1.56x
  • Timber funds 1.53x
  • Infra funds 1.50x
  • Performing debt 1.42x

Key takeaway

  • 100% cash paid on closing featured in 71.9% of the volume-weighted deal mix, and buyers underwrote to a 1.6x expected gross multipleA return measure equal to total value returned divided by capital invested (e.g. a 2.0x multiple doubles the money)..

Competition

Buyer competition for deals vs prior year

  • Meaningfully higher13.4%
  • Similar74.4%
  • Meaningfully lower12.2%

Intermediation

Volume involving an intermediary

75.4%

Volume involving an intermediary

$80.14bn

Intermediated volume

Outlook

Projected volume for FY 2024

FY 2024 Forecast

$140.06bn

Predicted secondary volume for FY 2024 (+31.7% vs this period)

How buyers expect FY 2024 to compare to this period

  • Meaningfully higher36.0%
  • Similar63.7%

Expected distribution and NAV changes in FY 2024

FY 2024 Expected

+4.7%

Expected change in distributions

+3.2%

Expected change in NAV

Key takeaway

  • Buyers project $140.06bn of volume in FY 2024, +31.7% against FY 2023. They also expect distributions to move +4.7% and NAVsNet asset value — the reported value of a fund's underlying holdings at a point in time. +3.2%.

Methodology

This edition summarises Setter Capital's semi-annual survey of the most active global buyers in the secondary market for alternative investments. Volume is defined as total exposure (NAV + unfunded, in USD) purchased in deals where a binding agreement was entered into during full-year 2023.

Source: Setter Capital Volume Report — FY 2023. The published PDF remains canonical.

Need pricing or liquidity insight on a specific portfolio?

Setter Capital advises buyers and sellers across the global secondary market.

Source: Setter Capital Volume Report. Volume is defined as total exposure (NAV + unfunded, USD) in deals with a binding agreement entered into during the reporting period.

V4 preview — figures are transcribed from the published reports; the published PDF remains canonical.