Setter Volume Report — global secondary market volume, H1 2015

5th Edition

Setter's semi-annual survey of the global secondary market — every edition since 2013.

Total volume

Total secondary market volume was $20.60bn in H1 2015, down 5.1% from $22.00bn in H1 2014.

Types of assets purchased (H1 2015, USD bn)

  • All assets purchased$20.60bn
  • Private Equity $16.50bn+1.9%
  • Real Estate $2.90bn−1.8%
  • Infrastructure $614.00m+28.5%
  • Hedge Funds $471.60m−78.6%

Reported activity vs H1 2014

  • Meaningfully higher31.0%
  • Similar51.0%
  • Meaningfully lower18.0%

Key takeaway

  • 31.0% of respondents reported meaningfully higher activity than H1 2014, against 18.0% reporting meaningfully lower.

Assets purchased

LP-led vs. GP-led secondaries

$15.06bn

LP-led volume

$5.54bn

GP-led volume

26.9%

GP-led share of volume

LP-led vs. GP-led split (share of volume)

  • LP-led73.1%
  • GP-led26.9%

Breakdown of LP-led fund secondaries

  • All LP-led fund secondaries$14.99bn
  • Private equity $11.60bn
  • Real Estate $2.30bn
  • Infrastructure $614.00m
  • Hedge Funds $471.60m

Types of funds purchased

Private equity funds (USD bn)

  • LBO$9.50bn
  • VC$773.30m
  • Debt$662.30m
  • Energy$349.70m
  • Fund of Funds$289.20m

Real estate funds (USD bn)

  • Opportunistic$1.10bn
  • Value-Add$709.70m
  • Core$481.70m

General partners' approach to the secondary market

Liquidations & restructurings

  • More44.6%
  • Similar55.4%

Staples sought by GPs

  • More30.6%
  • Similar64.4%
  • Less5.0%

Restrictiveness on transfers

  • More restrictive8.0%
  • No change86.0%
  • Less restrictive6.0%

Key takeaway

  • GP-ledA secondary transaction initiated by a fund's general partner, commonly involving a continuation vehicle or tender offer. secondaries were 26.9% of volume in H1 2015, with the balance LP-ledAn LP-led secondary: an existing fund investor (a limited partner) sells one or more fund interests to another investor..

Geography of assets purchased

Share of assets purchased by region

  • North America60.1%
  • Western Europe25.3%
  • Asia-Pacific8.4%
  • Global6.2%

Volume by region (USD bn, YoY)

  • All regions$20.60bn
  • North America $12.40bn+7.4%
  • Western Europe $5.20bn−21.7%
  • Asia-Pacific $1.70bn−42.3%
  • Global $1.30bn

Key takeaway

  • North America was the largest source of assets purchased in H1 2015, at 60.1% of volume.

Profiles of buyers

Types of buyers (share of volume)

  • Secondary Funds80.2%
  • Funds of Funds14.8%
  • Hedge Sec / FoFs2.7%
  • Pensions1.5%
  • Inv. Consultants0.8%

Locations of buyers (head-office based)

  • North America59.1%
  • Europe40.4%
  • Asia0.5%

Buyers' scope of interest

22.6%

Broadened into other alternative strategies

21.6%

Intend to broaden next year

Activity levels of small, medium and large buyers

BuyersVolumeShareDealsAvg. deal
Large8$10.10bn49.0%88$131.10m
Medium30$7.25bn35.2%221$28.50m
Small78$3.25bn15.8%277$10.00m

Volume by size of buyer

  • Large 49.0%$10.10bn
  • Medium 35.2%$7.25bn
  • Small 15.8%$3.25bn

Key takeaways

  • Secondary Funds led the buy side in H1 2015 at 80.2% of volume, and 59.1% of buyers were headquartered in North America.
  • The Large tier accounted for 49.0% of reported volume, across 8 buyers.

Deals

Number of deals and average deal size

586

Transactions

$35.10m

Average deal size

Deals and deal size by buyer size

Number of deals

  • Large 88
  • Medium 221
  • Small 277

Average deal size

  • Large $131.10m
  • Medium $28.50m
  • Small $10.00m

Seller profiles

Types of sellers in H1 2015

  • Other Fund GPs20.8%
  • Banks20.5%
  • Pensions18.7%
  • Fund of Funds / Secondary Funds12.0%
  • Endowments / Charities12.0%
  • Family Offices7.8%
  • Insurance Companies3.3%
  • Corporate2.0%
  • Sovereign Funds1.3%

Expected sellers over the next six months

  • Banks13.0%
  • Insurance Companies3.0%
  • Pensions33.0%
  • Sovereign Funds15.0%
  • Family Offices4.0%
  • Endowments / Charities8.0%
  • Fund of Funds / Secondary Funds10.0%
  • Hedge Funds / Hedge Fund of Funds1.0%
  • Other Fund GPs (non FoF or Sec Funds)12.0%
  • Corporate - Balance Sheet (non-financial)1.0%

Seller location

Share of volume by seller region

  • North America54.2%
  • Western Europe28.8%
  • Asia-Pacific14.6%
  • Other2.4%

Volume by seller region (USD bn)

  • North America $11.20bn
  • Western Europe $5.90bn
  • Asia-Pacific $3.00bn
  • Other $490.00m

Key takeaways

  • Other Fund GPs (20.8%) and Banks (20.5%) led selling in H1 2015.
  • Buyers expect Pensions to be the single largest source of volume over the next six months, at 33.0%.

Terms & returns

Leverage and returns

Level of debt used by buyers vs prior year

  • Meaningfully more43.9%
  • Similar56.1%

Buyers underwrote to an expected gross multiple of 1.43x.

Key takeaway

  • Buyers underwrote to a 1.43x expected gross multipleA return measure equal to total value returned divided by capital invested (e.g. a 2.0x multiple doubles the money)..

Competition

Buyer competition for deals vs prior year

  • Meaningfully higher33.3%
  • Similar63.9%
  • Meaningfully lower2.8%

Intermediation

Volume involving an intermediary

65.6%

Volume involving an intermediary

$13.50bn

Intermediated volume

Outlook

Projected volume for H2 2015

H2 2015 Forecast

$45.70bn

Predicted secondary volume for H2 2015 (−7.4% vs this period)

How buyers expect H2 2015 to compare to this period

  • Meaningfully higher19.0%
  • Similar67.0%
  • Meaningfully lower14.0%

Expected distribution and NAV changes in H2 2015

H2 2015 Expected

+0.4%

Expected change in distributions

+1.7%

Expected change in NAV

Key takeaway

  • Buyers project $45.70bn of volume in H2 2015, −7.4% against H1 2015. They also expect distributions to move +0.4% and NAVsNet asset value — the reported value of a fund's underlying holdings at a point in time. +1.7%.

Methodology

This edition summarises Setter Capital's semi-annual survey of the most active global buyers in the secondary market for alternative investments. Volume is defined as total exposure (NAV + unfunded, in USD) purchased in deals where a binding agreement was entered into during H1 2015.

Source: Setter Capital Volume Report — H1 2015. The published PDF remains canonical.

Need pricing or liquidity insight on a specific portfolio?

Setter Capital advises buyers and sellers across the global secondary market.

Source: Setter Capital Volume Report. Volume is defined as total exposure (NAV + unfunded, USD) in deals with a binding agreement entered into during the reporting period.

V4 preview — figures are transcribed from the published reports; the published PDF remains canonical.