Setter Volume Report — global secondary market volume, H1 2016

7th Edition

Setter's semi-annual survey of the global secondary market — every edition since 2013.

Total volume

Total secondary market volume was $18.60bn in H1 2016, down 9.7% from $20.60bn in H1 2015.

Types of assets purchased (H1 2016, USD bn)

  • All assets purchased$18.60bn
  • Private Equity $15.30bn−7.3%
  • Real Estate $1.80bn−36.7%
  • Infrastructure $860.00m+40.0%
  • Hedge Funds $410.00m−13.1%
  • Agriculture / Timber $224.00m−1.5%

Reported activity vs H1 2015

  • Meaningfully higher43.6%
  • Similar41.8%
  • Meaningfully lower14.6%

Key takeaway

  • 43.6% of respondents reported meaningfully higher activity than H1 2015, against 14.6% reporting meaningfully lower.

Assets purchased

LP-led vs. GP-led secondaries

$12.50bn

LP-led volume

$6.10bn

GP-led volume

32.8%

GP-led share of volume

LP-led vs. GP-led split (share of volume)

  • LP-led67.2%
  • GP-led32.8%

Direct purchases split PE vs RE

  • PE directs87.0%
  • RE directs13.0%

Breakdown of LP-led fund secondaries

  • All LP-led fund secondaries$12.52bn
  • Private equity $9.99bn−13.9%
  • Real Estate $1.04bn−54.8%
  • Infrastructure $860.00m+40.0%
  • Hedge Funds $410.00m−13.1%
  • Agriculture / Timber $224.00m−1.5%

Types of funds purchased

Private equity funds (USD bn)

  • LBO$7.80bn
  • VC$1.20bn
  • Mezzanine$557.00m
  • Energy$335.00m
  • Fund of Funds$161.00m

Real estate funds (USD bn)

  • Opportunistic$384.00m
  • Value-Add$338.00m
  • Core$314.00m

General partners' approach to the secondary market

Liquidations & restructurings

  • More49.3%
  • Similar49.7%
  • Less1.0%

Staples sought by GPs

  • More18.6%
  • Similar78.4%
  • Less3.0%

Restrictiveness on transfers

  • More restrictive16.0%
  • No change74.0%
  • Less restrictive10.0%

Key takeaway

  • GP-ledA secondary transaction initiated by a fund's general partner, commonly involving a continuation vehicle or tender offer. secondaries were 32.8% of volume in H1 2016, with the balance LP-ledAn LP-led secondary: an existing fund investor (a limited partner) sells one or more fund interests to another investor..

Geography of assets purchased

Share of assets purchased by region

  • North America54.7%
  • Western Europe25.6%
  • Global12.9%
  • Asia-Pacific5.0%
  • Other1.8%

Volume by region (USD bn, YoY)

  • All regions$18.60bn
  • North America $10.20bn−17.7%
  • Western Europe $4.80bn−7.7%
  • Global $2.40bn+322.0%
  • Asia-Pacific $922.00m−45.8%
  • Other $280.00m

Key takeaway

  • North America was the largest source of assets purchased in H1 2016, at 54.7% of volume.

Profiles of buyers

Types of buyers (share of volume)

  • Secondary Funds82.2%
  • Funds of Funds13.1%
  • Inv. Consultants2.0%
  • Hedge Sec / FoFs1.8%
  • Pensions0.9%

Locations of buyers (head-office based)

  • North America60.0%
  • Europe38.1%
  • Asia1.7%

Buyers' scope of interest

14.7%

Broadened into other alternative strategies

14.7%

Intend to broaden next year

Activity levels of small, medium and large buyers

BuyersVolumeShareDealsAvg. deal
Large11$10.60bn57.1%104$102.90m
Medium32$5.90bn31.7%171$34.50m
Small76$2.10bn11.1%248$8.30m

Volume by size of buyer

  • Large 57.1%$10.60bn
  • Medium 31.7%$5.90bn
  • Small 11.1%$2.10bn

Key takeaways

  • Secondary Funds led the buy side in H1 2016 at 82.2% of volume, and 60.0% of buyers were headquartered in North America.
  • The Large tier accounted for 57.1% of reported volume, across 11 buyers.

Deals

Number of deals and average deal size

523

Transactions

$35.60m

Average deal size

Deals and deal size by buyer size

Number of deals

  • Large 104
  • Medium 171
  • Small 248

Average deal size

  • Large $102.90m
  • Medium $34.50m
  • Small $8.30m

Seller profiles

Types of sellers in H1 2016

  • Pensions34.5%
  • Family Offices17.0%
  • Other Fund GPs17.0%
  • Banks13.0%
  • Fund of Funds / Secondary Funds11.0%
  • Endowments / Charities4.0%
  • Insurance Companies1.0%
  • Sovereign Funds1.0%
  • Corporate1.0%

Expected sellers over the next six months

  • Banks14.0%
  • Insurance Companies6.0%
  • Pensions36.0%
  • Sovereign Funds10.0%
  • Family Offices5.0%
  • Endowments / Charities6.0%
  • Fund of Funds / Secondary Funds13.0%
  • Hedge Funds / Hedge Fund of Funds1.0%
  • Other Fund GPs (non FoF or Sec Funds)6.0%
  • Corporate - Balance Sheet (non-financial)3.0%

Seller location

Share of volume by seller region

  • North America55.7%
  • Western Europe30.7%
  • Asia-Pacific9.8%
  • Other3.8%

Volume by seller region (USD bn)

  • North America $10.40bn
  • Western Europe $5.70bn
  • Asia-Pacific $1.80bn
  • Other $710.00m

Key takeaways

  • Pensions (34.5%) and Family Offices (17.0%) led selling in H1 2016.
  • Buyers expect Pensions to be the single largest source of volume over the next six months, at 36.0%.

Terms & returns

Leverage and returns

Level of debt used by buyers vs prior year

  • Meaningfully more15.3%
  • Similar84.7%

Buyers underwrote to an expected gross multiple of 1.39x.

Key takeaway

  • Buyers underwrote to a 1.39x expected gross multipleA return measure equal to total value returned divided by capital invested (e.g. a 2.0x multiple doubles the money)..

Competition

Buyer competition for deals vs prior year

  • Meaningfully higher21.8%
  • Similar73.1%
  • Meaningfully lower5.1%

Intermediation

Volume involving an intermediary

56.2%

Volume involving an intermediary

$10.50bn

Intermediated volume

Outlook

Projected volume for H2 2016

H2 2016 Forecast

$39.70bn

Predicted secondary volume for H2 2016 (−20.0% vs this period)

How buyers expect H2 2016 to compare to this period

  • Meaningfully higher15.2%
  • Similar78.4%
  • Meaningfully lower6.4%

Expected distribution and NAV changes in H2 2016

H2 2016 Expected

0.0%

Expected change in distributions

−4.0%

Expected change in NAV

Key takeaway

  • Buyers project $39.70bn of volume in H2 2016, −20.0% against H1 2016. They also expect distributions to move 0.0% and NAVsNet asset value — the reported value of a fund's underlying holdings at a point in time. −4.0%.

Methodology

This edition summarises Setter Capital's semi-annual survey of the most active global buyers in the secondary market for alternative investments. Volume is defined as total exposure (NAV + unfunded, in USD) purchased in deals where a binding agreement was entered into during H1 2016.

Source: Setter Capital Volume Report — H1 2016. The published PDF remains canonical.

Need pricing or liquidity insight on a specific portfolio?

Setter Capital advises buyers and sellers across the global secondary market.

Source: Setter Capital Volume Report. Volume is defined as total exposure (NAV + unfunded, USD) in deals with a binding agreement entered into during the reporting period.

V4 preview — figures are transcribed from the published reports; the published PDF remains canonical.