Setter Volume Report — global secondary market volume, H1 2018

11th Edition

Setter's semi-annual survey of the global secondary market — every edition since 2013.

Total volume

Total secondary market volume was $36.70bn in H1 2018, up 26.2% from $29.10bn in H1 2017.

Types of assets purchased (H1 2018, USD bn)

  • All assets purchased$36.70bn
  • Private Equity $31.53bn+29.8%
  • Real Estate $3.14bn−2.4%
  • Infrastructure $1.39bn+46.6%
  • Hedge Funds $520.00m+5.5%
  • Agriculture / Timber $120.00m+7.5%

Reported activity vs H1 2017

  • Meaningfully higher45.4%
  • Similar52.9%
  • Meaningfully lower1.7%

Key takeaway

  • 45.4% of respondents reported meaningfully higher activity than H1 2017, against 1.7% reporting meaningfully lower.

Assets purchased

LP-led vs. GP-led secondaries

$23.05bn

LP-led volume

$13.65bn

GP-led volume

37.2%

GP-led share of volume

LP-led vs. GP-led split (share of volume)

  • LP-led62.8%
  • GP-led37.2%

Direct purchases split PE vs RE

  • PE directs90.7%
  • RE directs9.3%

Breakdown of LP-led fund secondaries

  • All LP-led fund secondaries$23.06bn
  • Private equity $19.16bn+10.2%
  • Real Estate $1.87bn−23.2%
  • Infrastructure $1.39bn+46.6%
  • Hedge Funds $520.00m+5.5%
  • Agriculture / Timber $120.00m+7.5%

Types of funds purchased

Private equity funds (USD bn)

  • LBO$15.40bn
  • VC$1.40bn
  • Fund of Funds$960.00m
  • Energy$810.00m
  • Debt$580.00m

Real estate funds (USD bn)

  • Opportunistic$1.07bn
  • Value-Add$580.00m
  • Core$230.00m

General partners' approach to the secondary market

Liquidations & restructurings

  • More53.4%
  • Similar45.0%
  • Less1.0%

Staples sought by GPs

  • More31.9%
  • Similar63.0%
  • Less6.0%

Restrictiveness on transfers

  • More restrictive12.0%
  • No change77.0%
  • Less restrictive11.0%

Key takeaway

  • GP-ledA secondary transaction initiated by a fund's general partner, commonly involving a continuation vehicle or tender offer. secondaries were 37.2% of volume in H1 2018, with the balance LP-ledAn LP-led secondary: an existing fund investor (a limited partner) sells one or more fund interests to another investor..

Geography of assets purchased

Share of assets purchased by region

  • North America51.2%
  • Western Europe31.6%
  • Global9.3%
  • Asia-Pacific6.1%
  • Other1.8%

Volume by region (USD bn, YoY)

  • All regions$36.70bn
  • North America $18.45bn+22.9%
  • Western Europe $11.38bn+48.9%
  • Global $3.41bn+16.7%
  • Asia-Pacific $2.19bn−27.8%
  • Other $1.27bn

Key takeaway

  • North America was the largest source of assets purchased in H1 2018, at 51.2% of volume.

Profiles of buyers

Types of buyers (share of volume)

  • Secondary Funds82.4%
  • Funds of Funds10.8%
  • Pensions4.8%
  • Hedge Sec / FoFs1.6%
  • Inv. Consultants0.5%

Locations of buyers (head-office based)

  • North America62.8%
  • Europe35.0%
  • Asia1.8%

Buyers' scope of interest

17.1%

Broadened into other alternative strategies

35.1%

Intend to broaden next year

Activity levels of small, medium and large buyers

BuyersVolumeShareDealsAvg. deal
Large14$23.25bn63.4%176$132.46m
Medium43$10.50bn28.6%276$37.99m
Small68$2.95bn8.0%294$10.03m

Volume by size of buyer

  • Large 63.4%$23.25bn
  • Medium 28.6%$10.50bn
  • Small 8.0%$2.95bn

Key takeaways

  • Secondary Funds led the buy side in H1 2018 at 82.4% of volume, and 62.8% of buyers were headquartered in North America.
  • The Large tier accounted for 63.4% of reported volume, across 14 buyers.

Deals

Number of deals and average deal size

746

Transactions

$49.19m

Average deal size

Deals and deal size by buyer size

Number of deals

  • Large 176
  • Medium 276
  • Small 294

Average deal size

  • Large $132.46m
  • Medium $37.99m
  • Small $10.03m

Seller profiles

Types of sellers in H1 2018

  • Other Fund GPs31.2%
  • Pensions23.2%
  • Insurance Companies12.6%
  • Fund of Funds / Secondary Funds11.5%
  • Family Offices7.3%
  • Sovereign Funds5.4%
  • Endowments / Charities3.1%
  • Banks3.1%
  • Corporate2.5%

Expected sellers over the next six months

  • Banks10.0%
  • Insurance Companies3.0%
  • Pensions27.0%
  • Sovereign Funds5.0%
  • Family Offices10.0%
  • Endowments / Charities3.0%
  • Fund of Funds / Secondary Funds30.0%
  • Hedge Funds / Hedge Fund of Funds1.0%
  • Other Fund GPs (non FoF or Sec Funds)11.0%
  • Corporate - Balance Sheet (non-financial)0.0%

Seller location

Share of volume by seller region

  • North America60.9%
  • Western Europe29.0%
  • Asia-Pacific7.8%
  • Other2.4%

Volume by seller region (USD bn)

  • North America $22.33bn
  • Western Europe $10.64bn
  • Asia-Pacific $2.85bn
  • Other $880.00m

Key takeaways

  • Other Fund GPs (31.2%) and Pensions (23.2%) led selling in H1 2018.
  • Buyers expect Fund of Funds / Secondary Funds to be the single largest source of volume over the next six months, at 30.0%.

Terms & returns

Leverage and returns

Level of debt used by buyers vs prior year

  • Meaningfully more15.3%
  • Similar84.7%

Buyers underwrote to an expected gross multiple of 1.4x.

Buyers' target returns

Targeted IRRs (%)

  • PE directs 18.4%
  • VC funds 17.4%
  • RE funds 14.4%
  • LBO funds 13.4%
  • Infra funds 10.9%

Targeted gross multiples (x)

  • PE directs 1.71x
  • VC funds 1.60x
  • Infra funds 1.41x
  • RE funds 1.39x
  • LBO funds 1.38x

Key takeaway

  • Buyers underwrote to a 1.4x expected gross multipleA return measure equal to total value returned divided by capital invested (e.g. a 2.0x multiple doubles the money)..

Competition

Buyer competition for deals vs prior year

  • Meaningfully higher21.3%
  • Similar77.3%
  • Meaningfully lower1.3%

Intermediation

Volume involving an intermediary

64.6%

Volume involving an intermediary

$23.71bn

Intermediated volume

Outlook

Projected volume for H2 2018

H2 2018 Forecast

$66.40bn

Predicted secondary volume for H2 2018 (+9.3% vs this period)

How buyers expect H2 2018 to compare to this period

  • Meaningfully higher10.3%
  • Similar83.7%
  • Meaningfully lower6.0%

Expected distribution and NAV changes in H2 2018

H2 2018 Expected

+2.0%

Expected change in distributions

+2.3%

Expected change in NAV

Key takeaway

  • Buyers project $66.40bn of volume in H2 2018, +9.3% against H1 2018. They also expect distributions to move +2.0% and NAVsNet asset value — the reported value of a fund's underlying holdings at a point in time. +2.3%.

Methodology

This edition summarises Setter Capital's semi-annual survey of the most active global buyers in the secondary market for alternative investments. Volume is defined as total exposure (NAV + unfunded, in USD) purchased in deals where a binding agreement was entered into during H1 2018.

Source: Setter Capital Volume Report — H1 2018. The published PDF remains canonical.

Need pricing or liquidity insight on a specific portfolio?

Setter Capital advises buyers and sellers across the global secondary market.

Source: Setter Capital Volume Report. Volume is defined as total exposure (NAV + unfunded, USD) in deals with a binding agreement entered into during the reporting period.

V4 preview — figures are transcribed from the published reports; the published PDF remains canonical.