Setter Volume Report — global secondary market volume, H1 2019

13th Edition

Setter's semi-annual survey of the global secondary market — every edition since 2013.

Total volume

Total secondary market volume was $46.01bn in H1 2019, up 25.4% from $36.70bn in H1 2018.

Types of assets purchased (H1 2019, USD bn)

  • All assets purchased$46.01bn
  • Private Equity $42.10bn+33.5%
  • Real Estate $1.91bn−39.2%
  • Infrastructure $1.51bn+8.6%
  • Hedge Funds $340.00m−35.1%
  • Agriculture / Timber $160.00m+33.0%

Reported activity vs H1 2018

  • Meaningfully higher53.7%
  • Similar38.8%
  • Meaningfully lower7.5%

Key takeaway

  • 53.7% of respondents reported meaningfully higher activity than H1 2018, against 7.5% reporting meaningfully lower.

Assets purchased

LP-led vs. GP-led secondaries

$28.57bn

LP-led volume

$17.44bn

GP-led volume

37.9%

GP-led share of volume

LP-led vs. GP-led split (share of volume)

  • LP-led62.1%
  • GP-led37.9%

Direct purchases split PE vs RE

  • PE directs95.2%
  • RE directs4.8%

Breakdown of LP-led fund secondaries

  • All LP-led fund secondaries$28.59bn
  • Private equity $25.51bn+33.1%
  • Infrastructure $1.51bn+8.6%
  • Real Estate $1.07bn−42.9%
  • Hedge Funds $340.00m−35.1%
  • Agriculture / Timber $160.00m+33.0%

Types of funds purchased

Private equity funds (USD bn)

  • LBO$19.18bn
  • Debt$2.20bn
  • VC$2.12bn
  • Energy$1.04bn
  • Fund of Funds$970.00m

Real estate funds (USD bn)

  • Opportunistic$500.00m
  • Core$310.00m
  • Value-Add$260.00m

Types of GP-led secondaries

Types of deals completed

  • Fund restructurings (LPs may sell or roll into a new vehicle)36.0%
  • Purchases of directs from a fund (incumbent manager exits)12.0%
  • Tender offers to LPs (fund not restructured)7.0%
  • Provision of unfunded / dry powder to a fund2.0%
  • Other43.0%

General partners' approach to the secondary market

Liquidations & restructurings

  • More57.1%
  • Similar40.0%
  • Less3.0%

Staples sought by GPs

  • More28.9%
  • Similar71.1%

Restrictiveness on transfers

  • More restrictive21.0%
  • No change68.0%
  • Less restrictive11.0%

Key takeaways

  • GP-ledA secondary transaction initiated by a fund's general partner, commonly involving a continuation vehicle or tender offer. secondaries were 37.9% of volume in H1 2019, with the balance LP-ledAn LP-led secondary: an existing fund investor (a limited partner) sells one or more fund interests to another investor..
  • Other were the most common GP-led structure, at 43.0% of deals.

Geography of assets purchased

Share of assets purchased by region

  • North America66.5%
  • Western Europe20.9%
  • Asia-Pacific6.7%
  • Global4.9%
  • Other1.0%

Volume by region (USD bn, YoY)

  • All regions$46.01bn
  • North America $30.58bn+65.7%
  • Western Europe $9.63bn−15.4%
  • Asia-Pacific $3.07bn+40.3%
  • Global $2.26bn−33.7%
  • Other $470.00m

Key takeaway

  • North America was the largest source of assets purchased in H1 2019, at 66.5% of volume.

Profiles of buyers

Types of buyers (share of volume)

  • Secondary Funds87.4%
  • Funds of Funds10.1%
  • Hedge Sec / FoFs1.1%
  • Inv. Consultants0.7%
  • Pensions0.7%

Locations of buyers (head-office based)

  • North America58.3%
  • Europe39.7%
  • Asia2.0%

Buyers' scope of interest

12.8%

Broadened into other alternative strategies

28.9%

Intend to broaden next year

Activity levels of small, medium and large buyers

BuyersVolumeShareDealsAvg. deal
Large13$31.55bn68.6%155$204.04m
Medium40$11.20bn24.3%310$36.10m
Small67$3.26bn7.1%430$7.58m

Volume by size of buyer

  • Large 68.6%$31.55bn
  • Medium 24.3%$11.20bn
  • Small 7.1%$3.26bn

Key takeaways

  • Secondary Funds led the buy side in H1 2019 at 87.4% of volume, and 58.3% of buyers were headquartered in North America.
  • The Large tier accounted for 68.6% of reported volume, across 13 buyers.

Deals

Number of deals and average deal size

895

Transactions

$51.40m

Average deal size

Deals and deal size by buyer size

Number of deals

  • Large 155
  • Medium 310
  • Small 430

Average deal size

  • Large $204.04m
  • Medium $36.10m
  • Small $7.58m

Seller profiles

Types of sellers in H1 2019

  • Other Fund GPs27.8%
  • Banks19.5%
  • Pensions18.2%
  • Insurance Companies10.3%
  • Fund of Funds / Secondary Funds7.7%
  • Endowments / Charities5.2%
  • Sovereign Funds3.8%
  • Family Offices3.6%
  • Corporate3.2%

Expected sellers over the next six months

  • Banks3.0%
  • Insurance Companies4.0%
  • Pensions35.0%
  • Sovereign Funds17.0%
  • Family Offices4.0%
  • Endowments / Charities8.0%
  • Fund of Funds / Secondary Funds17.0%
  • Hedge Funds / Hedge Fund of Funds0.0%
  • Other Fund GPs (non FoF or Sec Funds)12.0%
  • Corporate - Balance Sheet (non-financial)0.0%

Seller location

Share of volume by seller region

  • North America57.4%
  • Asia-Pacific20.3%
  • Western Europe19.4%
  • Other2.9%

Volume by seller region (USD bn)

  • North America $26.42bn
  • Asia-Pacific $9.33bn
  • Western Europe $8.94bn
  • Other $1.33bn

Key takeaways

  • Other Fund GPs (27.8%) and Banks (19.5%) led selling in H1 2019.
  • Buyers expect Pensions to be the single largest source of volume over the next six months, at 35.0%.

Terms & returns

Payment terms

Payment terms

  • 100% cash paid on closing70.0%
  • Partially deferred (e.g. half on close, half in a year)22.0%
  • Earn-out (large cash component on closing)4.0%
  • Preferred equity3.0%
  • Other terms / structuring1.0%

Leverage and returns

Level of debt used by buyers vs prior year

  • Meaningfully more17.1%
  • Similar82.9%

Buyers underwrote to an expected gross multiple of 1.42x.

Buyers' target returns

Targeted IRRs (%)

  • VC funds 19.4%
  • PE directs 18.9%
  • LBO funds 15.1%
  • RE funds 14.3%
  • Infra funds 10.7%

Targeted gross multiples (x)

  • PE directs 1.76x
  • VC funds 1.73x
  • RE funds 1.49x
  • LBO funds 1.45x
  • Infra funds 1.41x

Key takeaway

  • 100% cash paid on closing featured in 70.0% of the volume-weighted deal mix, and buyers underwrote to a 1.42x expected gross multipleA return measure equal to total value returned divided by capital invested (e.g. a 2.0x multiple doubles the money)..

Competition

Buyer competition for deals vs prior year

  • Meaningfully higher6.4%
  • Similar91.0%
  • Meaningfully lower2.6%

Intermediation

Volume involving an intermediary

75.4%

Volume involving an intermediary

$34.71bn

Intermediated volume

Outlook

Projected volume for H2 2019

H2 2019 Forecast

$82.80bn

Predicted secondary volume for H2 2019 (+3.9% vs this period)

How buyers expect H2 2019 to compare to this period

  • Meaningfully higher21.1%
  • Similar47.7%
  • Meaningfully lower31.1%

Expected distribution and NAV changes in H2 2019

H2 2019 Expected

+2.5%

Expected change in distributions

+2.3%

Expected change in NAV

Key takeaway

  • Buyers project $82.80bn of volume in H2 2019, +3.9% against H1 2019. They also expect distributions to move +2.5% and NAVsNet asset value — the reported value of a fund's underlying holdings at a point in time. +2.3%.

Methodology

This edition summarises Setter Capital's semi-annual survey of the most active global buyers in the secondary market for alternative investments. Volume is defined as total exposure (NAV + unfunded, in USD) purchased in deals where a binding agreement was entered into during H1 2019.

Source: Setter Capital Volume Report — H1 2019. The published PDF remains canonical.

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Setter Capital advises buyers and sellers across the global secondary market.

Source: Setter Capital Volume Report. Volume is defined as total exposure (NAV + unfunded, USD) in deals with a binding agreement entered into during the reporting period.

V4 preview — figures are transcribed from the published reports; the published PDF remains canonical.