Setter Volume Report — global secondary market volume, H1 2023

21st Edition

Setter's semi-annual survey of the global secondary market — every edition since 2013.

Total volume

Total secondary market volume was $45.09bn in H1 2023, down 22.2% from $57.84bn in H1 2022.

Types of assets purchased (H1 2023, USD bn)

  • All assets purchased$45.09bn
  • Private Equity $41.23bn−23.3%
  • Infrastructure $2.76bn+43.1%
  • Real Estate $960.00m−48.4%
  • Hedge Funds $100.00m−54.0%
  • Agriculture / Timber $46.00m−38.5%

Reported activity vs H1 2022

  • Meaningfully higher9.5%
  • Similar56.8%
  • Meaningfully lower33.6%

Key takeaway

  • 9.5% of respondents reported meaningfully higher activity than H1 2022, against 33.6% reporting meaningfully lower.

Assets purchased

LP-led vs. GP-led secondaries

$28.14bn

LP-led volume

$16.95bn

GP-led volume

37.6%

GP-led share of volume

LP-led vs. GP-led split (share of volume)

  • LP-led62.4%
  • GP-led37.6%

Direct purchases split PE vs RE

  • PE directs97.8%
  • RE directs2.2%

Breakdown of LP-led fund secondaries

  • All LP-led fund secondaries$28.15bn
  • Private equity $24.65bn−9.4%
  • Infrastructure $2.76bn+43.1%
  • Real Estate $590.00m−48.4%
  • Hedge Funds $100.00m−54.0%
  • Agriculture / Timber $50.00m−38.5%

Types of funds purchased

Private equity funds (USD bn)

  • LBO$20.57bn
  • Debt$2.04bn
  • VC$1.06bn
  • Fund of Funds$919.00m
  • Energy$58.00m

Real estate funds (USD bn)

  • Value-Add$221.00m
  • Core$184.00m
  • Opportunistic$184.00m

Maturity of funds purchased

Average age of funds purchased

The volume-weighted average age of the fund interests purchased in H1 2023 was 4.65 years, compared with 5.11 years in H1 2022.

Types of GP-led secondaries

Types of deals completed

  • Fund restructurings (LPs may sell or roll into a new vehicle)80.0%
  • Purchases of directs from a fund (incumbent manager exits)5.0%
  • Tender offers to LPs (fund not restructured)9.0%
  • Provision of unfunded / dry powder to a fund2.0%
  • Other3.0%

General partners' approach to the secondary market

Liquidations & restructurings

  • More29.5%
  • Similar65.5%
  • Less5.0%

Staples sought by GPs

  • More44.7%
  • Similar50.3%
  • Less5.0%

Restrictiveness on transfers

  • More restrictive11.0%
  • No change80.0%
  • Less restrictive9.0%

Key takeaways

  • GP-ledA secondary transaction initiated by a fund's general partner, commonly involving a continuation vehicle or tender offer. secondaries were 37.6% of volume in H1 2023, with the balance LP-ledAn LP-led secondary: an existing fund investor (a limited partner) sells one or more fund interests to another investor..
  • Fund restructurings were the most common GP-led structure, at 80.0% of deals.

Geography of assets purchased

Share of assets purchased by region

  • North America62.5%
  • Western Europe27.8%
  • Global6.2%
  • Asia-Pacific3.4%
  • Other0.1%

Volume by region (USD bn, YoY)

  • All regions$45.09bn
  • North America $28.20bn−26.2%
  • Western Europe $12.55bn+13.0%
  • Global $2.79bn−49.0%
  • Asia-Pacific $1.53bn−36.5%
  • Other $20.00m

Key takeaway

  • North America was the largest source of assets purchased in H1 2023, at 62.5% of volume.

Profiles of buyers

Types of buyers (share of volume)

  • Secondary Funds91.1%
  • Funds of Funds5.3%
  • Inv. Consultants1.2%
  • Pensions1.1%
  • Hedge Sec / FoFs0.8%

Locations of buyers (head-office based)

  • North America67.8%
  • Europe31.0%
  • Asia1.2%

Buyers' scope of interest

5.3%

Broadened into other alternative strategies

21.6%

Intend to broaden next year

Activity levels of small, medium and large buyers

BuyersVolumeShareDealsAvg. deal
Large15$28.15bn62.2%189$149.34m
Medium53$14.30bn31.6%356$40.12m
Small62$2.80bn6.2%321$8.72m

Volume by size of buyer

  • Large 62.2%$28.15bn
  • Medium 31.6%$14.30bn
  • Small 6.2%$2.80bn

Key takeaways

  • Secondary Funds led the buy side in H1 2023 at 91.1% of volume, and 67.8% of buyers were headquartered in North America.
  • The Large tier accounted for 62.2% of reported volume, across 15 buyers.

Deals

Number of deals and average deal size

866

Transactions

$52.07m

Average deal size

Deals and deal size by buyer size

Number of deals

  • Large 189
  • Medium 356
  • Small 321

Average deal size

  • Large $149.34m
  • Medium $40.12m
  • Small $8.72m

Execution risk

Deals that fell through vs prior period

  • Meaningfully higher17.9%
  • Similar72.1%
  • Meaningfully lower10.0%

Why deals fell through

  • Seller decided not to sell72.7%
  • Adverse portfolio or manager issues uncovered in post-LOI diligence13.6%
  • GP did not allow transfer / PTP issues4.5%
  • Disagreement over PSA terms4.5%
  • Disagreement over NAV or post-reference date cash flows2.2%
  • Adverse tax issues uncovered in post-LOI diligence2.2%

Seller profiles

Types of sellers in H1 2023

  • Pensions36.6%
  • Other Fund GPs25.7%
  • Banks9.5%
  • Insurance Companies8.5%
  • Family Offices6.8%
  • Endowments / Charities4.6%
  • Fund of Funds / Secondary Funds4.2%
  • Corporate2.4%
  • Sovereign Funds1.6%

Expected sellers over the next six months

  • Other Fund GPs (non FoF or Sec Funds)12.0%
  • Pensions44.0%
  • Sovereign Funds6.0%
  • Fund of Funds / Secondary Funds1.0%
  • Family Offices12.0%
  • Banks7.0%
  • Insurance Companies11.0%
  • Endowments / Charities7.0%
  • Corporate - Balance Sheet (non-financial)0.3%

Seller location

Share of volume by seller region

  • North America65.3%
  • Western Europe25.3%
  • Asia-Pacific7.3%
  • Other2.1%

Volume by seller region (USD bn)

  • North America $29.46bn
  • Asia-Pacific $3.30bn
  • Western Europe $11.41bn
  • Other $950.00m

Key takeaways

  • Pensions (36.6%) and Other Fund GPs (25.7%) led selling in H1 2023.
  • Buyers expect Pensions to be the single largest source of volume over the next six months, at 44.0%.

Terms & returns

Payment terms

Payment terms

  • 100% cash paid on closing72.6%
  • Partially deferred (e.g. half on close, half in a year)12.9%
  • Other terms / structuring13.4%
  • Preferred equity1.2%

Leverage and returns

Level of debt used by buyers vs prior year

  • Meaningfully more1.4%
  • Similar47.2%
  • Less51.4%

Buyers underwrote to an expected gross multiple of 1.59x.

Buyers' target returns

Targeted IRRs (%)

  • VC funds 20.9%
  • PE directs 19.8%
  • LBO funds 16.4%
  • RE funds 15.3%
  • Infra funds 12.5%

Targeted gross multiples (x)

  • PE directs 1.96x
  • VC funds 1.95x
  • LBO funds 1.60x
  • RE funds 1.58x
  • Infra funds 1.55x

Key takeaway

  • 100% cash paid on closing featured in 72.6% of the volume-weighted deal mix, and buyers underwrote to a 1.59x expected gross multipleA return measure equal to total value returned divided by capital invested (e.g. a 2.0x multiple doubles the money)..

Competition

Buyer competition for deals vs prior year

  • Meaningfully higher17.1%
  • Similar68.4%
  • Meaningfully lower14.5%

Intermediation

Volume involving an intermediary

75.4%

Volume involving an intermediary

$33.98bn

Intermediated volume

Outlook

Projected volume for H2 2023

H2 2023 Forecast

$109.86bn

Predicted secondary volume for H2 2023 (−3.3% vs this period)

How buyers expect H2 2023 to compare to this period

  • Meaningfully higher44.1%
  • Similar54.3%

Expected distribution and NAV changes in H2 2023

H2 2023 Expected

+2.3%

Expected change in distributions

+2.2%

Expected change in NAV

Key takeaway

  • Buyers project $109.86bn of volume in H2 2023, −3.3% against H1 2023. They also expect distributions to move +2.3% and NAVsNet asset value — the reported value of a fund's underlying holdings at a point in time. +2.2%.

Methodology

This edition summarises Setter Capital's semi-annual survey of the most active global buyers in the secondary market for alternative investments. Volume is defined as total exposure (NAV + unfunded, in USD) purchased in deals where a binding agreement was entered into during H1 2023.

Source: Setter Capital Volume Report — H1 2023. The published PDF remains canonical.

Need pricing or liquidity insight on a specific portfolio?

Setter Capital advises buyers and sellers across the global secondary market.

Source: Setter Capital Volume Report. Volume is defined as total exposure (NAV + unfunded, USD) in deals with a binding agreement entered into during the reporting period.

V4 preview — figures are transcribed from the published reports; the published PDF remains canonical.